Pang Tong in a chain of contemporary exchange rate and monetary policy
mm series of reviews of the nine
Zhou Qi Ren
Economic Observer June 14, 2010 Monday, speaking from experience
, fixed exchange rates often lead to disaster. the reasons leading to such disasters are the same, that is, the stability of a fixed exchange rate fluctuations in the number of countries fear in itself, but, once the nature of masking the onset of currency instability has been fixed exchange rate with the economy as a whole, but suffer more major crisis.
1997 Asian financial crisis, an important background is East Asian currencies in the previous dozen years has been taken to peg to the dollar's exchange rate policy. Agriculture (R. Mckinnon) argues that it is the stability of these currencies and the dollar link, as the domestic price level in these countries to maintain a the East Asian countries have been most likely the fault is under pressure in a variety of abuses the right to issue their own currency, leading to price instability. Well now, the exchange rate pegged to the dollar, then the exchange rate target to control domestic money supply, Is not equal to their respective currencies to lead added a lock? as long as no one Super-currency, price stability, the rising star is very easy to play in the international comparative advantage, export-oriented drive of the East Asian model of economic growth this form.
nice, indeed a good many years Back in 1993, the World Bank published does not concern the Bank's summary of the East Asian countries pegged to the dollar exchange rate experience. but do not know Fortunately or unfortunately, just as the anchor is the dollar exchange rate and monetary regimes in Asia, only in the lived .1997 fuse the Asian financial crisis, not that Thailand, Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia and other countries have money, ?
people have to these countries out of trouble to find their internal reasons. but few people think, that constitute the anchor of the East Asian currencies the dollar itself will not be a problem. It's no wonder the 90's dollar late or global strong currency. the one hand, I think U.S. still enjoy call a responsible central bank serves as the anchor currency of the results, after this point let me describe to the reader), on the other hand the 1991 Gulf War and the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States in the global growth of the national prestige. it's hard for people escape stereotypes: the currency pegged to the dollar and the economy is a problem, of course, to look for the causes of these internal economy. This means that the U.S. can never be wrong anchor, the anchor of the dollar that the next ship of another blatantly East Asia The problem must be in the boat!
Sure, a pass rush for international assistance, combined with a pass or deep or shallow East Asian system, the stability of East Asia down with the U.S. economy back and put a hook. McKinnon said, This is the Asian mm nominal exchange rate changes weekly rather than monthly or quarterly, as do the so-called low-frequency mm out of the statistical regression, you can see the financial crisis, Asian countries, not only did not abandon the pre-crisis exchange rate regime pegged to the dollar, but more stable pegged to the dollar. In particular, lifting to make a significant contribution to the Asian financial crisis mm in crisis, and to honor the commitment not to devalue the RMB mm of China, also joined the high-frequency exchange rate peg to the club. This is consistent with those of the fixed exchange rate analysis, the Asian financial crisis not only has nothing to do with fixed or pegged exchange rate, and as long as Asian currencies pegged to the dollar to enhance the strength of the exchange rate pegged to expand high-frequency range, Asia and the global economy will perform better.
these thesis has been proved once again it seems. East Asian economic crisis not because of glory That sluggish, but also because, after China in 1997 maintained the same exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar, . adhere to the fixed exchange rate appears to be more of the theorists to make sure the following conclusion: the dollar standard, the Asia and China, the best development, is more fixed, more frequency and greater extent the dollar peg.
Unfortunately, once again encounter the anchor currency country. the crisis is characterized by large anchor the first move, then hurt by high frequency peg that tied together the economy. or no one to ask: is the high-frequency logic clearly and logically deduced pegged exchange rate system, Why or restrain it? This time, people were beginning to pay attention also see the forest. I'd appreciate a question was raised: that the world may derided alcoholic drink with the guys on Wall Street, but what so many of the wine come from it?
2008 I was among the crisis Wen pointed out that if there is no gold standard for freedom from U.S. dollars, not too loose supply out of U.S. dollars, only the rampant greed and improper supervision can not explain the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, and why the fire of the U.S. subprime mortgage can be burned to the global market (see point, then this global financial crisis, which can always be a reminder of the association, right? at least, when U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary who the outspoken tone of speaking out of arrogance, currency, your trouble Even as the idea of a currency, another place in the world have also been implemented. This is the euro experiment. euro, of course the high-frequency than in Asia is more in line with the fixed exchange rate system pegged exchange rate of the ideal. is not it? so much mm developed European countries and less developed mm after an agreement to form a unified currency area, using the same currency. For the euro-zone countries, the most super-high-frequency currency exchange rate is absolutely no need, because if they had only one currency, currency exchange rate between the superfluous. For those who fixed exchange rate of the euro test course, the high-frequency than in Asia pegged exchange rate This Greek sovereign debt crisis after the dust settles, can look at the conclusions it reached Kaopu.
However, whether the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, or the euro zone sovereign debt crisis of the moment, do not reduce the fixed rate of those who peddle the is this. However, in the U.S. dollar, euro historical juncture with the swaggering, but also hope may be over-conceited on the performance. Is it really that big to grasp, the test has not yet been concluded, as a policy by the world economy out people do?
idealist seems to be invincible. as long as the existing arrangements and of alignment, they will never be able to not long enough, so that people's expectations is not enough fixed. countermeasure is also simple mm wider, longer, more reliable and more committed to a fixed exchange rate it wants. They avoid the basic history and reality, that precious metals had a unified currency system is due to restrain, and only leads to the exchange rate issue; but rather is an attempt to solve the fixed exchange rate instability in currencies trouble, often before a catastrophe. may be successfully evaded the history and reality, their stands for soldiers was not a swimmer, can not play in the rickety ship combat. At this time, was the Pang Tong Jiang Gan Cao Ying Qiao into a total grant. Pang Tong said: ; North Soldiers are not accustomed to boat, by this rough, then to disease. If both match the ship a boat or a row of thirty or fifty to a row of end to end with a hoop chain, spread wide board, Hugh made may cross, horses can also take the men, but to take this line, let him up and down tidal waves, complex why fear Kazuya? change; North soldiers not accustomed to a boat, a time has changed, however. the rest can take effect immediately changed, and that is the size of the vessel with a hoop into one chain, so that the vessel had stabilized shaking. predicament, cable with a boat, Rulvpingdi cross the river, there is nothing to fear from? Cao Cao heard justified, and ordered to do so. to do so and then adjust the military concept of Cao Cao's water practice, and sees Mountain Dew, as firm as the ground. North troops on board, active Shi Yong, spear guns to knives. around, the Army, Flag is not complex. go. and then later the story, ladies and well-known: veteran with twenty boats Zha Jiang Huang Gai, Cao kiosk close together after the angry, it was locked hoop moment to make the vessel Cao Village, can not escape, Sanjiang surface, the fire by the wind to fly with one red, sky thorough manner to steady the ship, but to guard against rivals Huogong. Cao response, Fire Attack would like to take the wind, when the depth of winter, a north westerly, southerly wind did not, and Cao living on the Northwest, if Wu Jun, Fire will it not burn own? This shows that the risk of Cao Cao know Huogong, he just misjudged the wind a constraint mm. Yes, Huang Gai Cao was able to point the kiosk, because Zhuge Liang came in seven southeast wind altar sacrifice .
If this story of conspiracy to remove all elements of a fixed exchange rate policy advocates is a contemporary comic. an objective measure, with a fixed exchange rate of the fused multi-currency, just as with the iron ring to shake the vessel more than fused, of course, has many advantages. The problem is to obtain benefits or else pay the price, and more deadly problem is that all the proceeds realized the key to cost constraints. We are going to review today's world what is the wind blowing?
