Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Lin Yi The U.S. may once again use the quantitative easing policy

 We expect the Chinese central bank will continue raising interest rates to eliminate the phenomenon of the current negative real interest rates, reduce inflation pressures. Not long ago, the Chinese government to adjust monetary policy, reflecting the government wants to reduce loan growth, lower liquidity and inflationary pressures in the intention, rather than worrying about overheating Chinese economy, the adjustment of monetary policy is not to stop economic development. We expect the Chinese government will take this opportunity to make economic policy adjustments shift to domestic consumption, China's economic growth has been relatively strong, future rate hikes will not have the sustained growth of China's economy have a greater negative impact.

Our asset allocation strategy is high with stocks, the economy is gradually improving, and better earnings prospects of the stock in a reasonable extent of the liabilities and the company will rise under the influence. Fed quantitative policy shows that it will lower interest rates for long periods, the U.S. government bond yields will continue to maintain historically low levels.

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terms relative to developed markets, emerging markets in the medium to long term growth opportunities within the larger economy, we also had its share of high distribution, while optimistic about emerging market bonds.

secondary quantitative easing policy has brought low interest rates, high commodity prices and weakening dollar, in theory, will a positive impact on the market, but not actually a huge change. Of course, the stock market continue to rise will boost consumer spending, lower interest rates will encourage a certain extent, housing loans and business investment, but the main reason for not hinder the demand for the current financial situation, but the structural adjustment and policy uncertainty.

, but still subject to high unemployment and low growth rate of prices. Even if the new economic data showed the recovery cycle has begun, but according to the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing policy, the second reason, we believe that the future will continue to use the policy of the United States. Based on our mid-2011, core inflation, high unemployment and low expectations, when the second end of quantitative easing, the U.S. may re-use of quantitative easing policy.

secondary quantitative easing policy and the U.S. government's fiscal stimulus will cause the U.S. dollar, but because of the euro by the recent debt crisis, we think that other European currencies will have better performance, because these countries economic growth situation is better and there are fewer financial problems. Inflation in food prices led by the Asian currencies will continue to appreciate, so the demand for emerging market investors are still very strong, capital will continue to flow to the area, or hot money, whether these funds are based on reasonable investment.

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Rowe Price Group, Greater China general manager of the U.S. Forest Yi

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